New Florida Chamber of Commerce Statewide Poll Shows Presidential Race Leaning Toward Hillary Clinton in Florida

By: Florida Chamber of Commerce

Poll Also Shows Rubio Increasing his Lead Over Murphy

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (October 21, 2016) – As Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leave the Presidential debates and make their final push before the election, the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) statewide poll shows the presidential race moving in Hillary Clinton’s direction, yet still within the margin of error.

“I’ve had the ability to cover presidential elections for decades and in the last weeks of the election, Florida’s voting numbers are known for changing,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Political Strategy at the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “As of today, more than ¼ of Florida voters have already requested vote-by-mail ballots, and many will choose to vote early. The Florida Chamber tracks these early and vote-by-mail numbers daily at www.FloridaChamber.com/Elections. There’s also more to this election than just the top of the ticket. There are important state House and Senate races taking place all across Florida and we encourage all Floridians to get out and vote, either by mail, early or on November 8.”

While they may not like Clinton or Trump, Floridians like Marco Rubio more than they dislike him. Marco Rubio has increased his lead over Patrick Murphy and is in a stronger position.

Politicians on the Ballot Are Viewed Unfavorably:

Hillary Clinton
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
44%                 53%                 1%

Donald Trump
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
42%                 53%                 0%

Marco Rubio
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
48%                 42%                 2%

Patrick Murphy
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
27%                 30%                 25%

Key Facts About Florida Voters:

  • Jobs and the economy remain the number one concern among Florida voters at 22 percent, followed by education and schools at 12 percent.
  • Florida voters are more optimistic that Florida is moving in the right direction: 47 percent right direction and 33 percent wrong direction.

“We have been polling Governor Rick Scott since he was first elected and his job approval is at an all-time high,” said Johnson. “Florida voters can see that Governor Scott has continued to deliver on his job creation promises and has displayed strong leadership during Florida’s times of crisis.”

Governor Rick Scott:

Job Approval: More than half of Florida voters (54 percent) approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

  • 56 percent of Other voters approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 83 percent of Republicans approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 50 percent of women and 58 percent of men approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.

Favorability: Nearly half of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably.

  • 47 percent of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably, 40 percent view him unfavorably and 4 percent have never heard of him.

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46 percent to 42 percent in the General Election matchup. The Florida Chamber Political Institute’s statewide poll shows Clinton gaining a point since our previous poll in September.

Presidential Ticket:

  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 46%
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence 42%
  • Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 5%
  • Jill Stein/Ajamui Baraka 1%
  • Someone Else 2%
  • Undecided 4%
  • Refused 1%

South Florida Problem:

  • Trump continues to struggle in South Florida, trailing nearly 30 points in each media market.
    • Clinton leads Trump 60 percent to 33 percent in Miami, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.
    • Clinton leads Trump 63 percent to 33 percent in West Palm Beach, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.

Demographics:

  • Hillary Clinton is buoyed by her commanding lead among Hispanics.
    • Clinton leads Trump among Hispanics 59 percent to 28 percent with Johnson receiving 6 percent and Stein 0 percent.
  • Donald Trump has a strong lead among White voters
    • Trump leads Clinton among White voters 52 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 5% and Stein 1%.
  • A gender gap still exists – Trump leads among men and Clinton is dominating among women.
    • Trump leads Clinton among men 46 percent to 40 percent with Johnson receiving 5 percent and Stein 1 percent.
    • Clinton has a strong lead over Trump among women 51 percent to 39 percent with Johnson receiving 4 percent and Stein 1 percent.
  • Clinton and Trump each do equally well with their bases
    • Clinton earns the support of 79 percent of Democrats. (Florida has 4,834,175 registered Democrats)
    • Trump earns the support of 78 percent of Republicans. (Florida has 4,526,024 registered Republicans)
    • Johnson is supported by 3 percent of Democrats and 5 percent of Republicans.
    • Stein is supported by 2 percent of Democrats and 0 percent of Republicans.
  • Clinton leads Trump among voters from minor parties or who are unaffiliated. (Florida has 3,371,200 minor or unaffiliated voters)
    • Clinton leads Trump among unaffiliated voters 46 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 7 percent and Stein 1 percent.

U.S. Senate: Marco Rubio has extended his lead over Patrick Murphy.

  • Marco Rubio 51%
  • Patrick Murphy 37%
  • Someone Else 1%
  • Undecided/Refused 11%

Demographics:

  • Marco Rubio continues to lead Patrick Murphy as he has in every FCPI poll – a credit to his strength among various demographic groups.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 52 percent to 46 percent among Hispanic voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 60 percent to 33 percent among White voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy among both men and women.
      • Rubio leads Murphy 56 percent to 36 percent among men.
      • Rubio leads Murphy  52 percent to 42 percent among women
      • Rubio’s lead among voters from other parties almost mirrors his lead in the general election (17 percent). Rubio leads Murphy 53 percent to 36 percent among voters from minor parties or who have no party affiliation.
      • Rubio holds on to his base more so than Murphy.
        • Rubio has the support of 89% of Republicans with Murphy receiving 7%.
        • Murphy receives the support of 71% of Democrats, with Rubio receiving 20%.

ABOUT THIS POLL:  The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on October 16-19, 2016 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. The sample size included 507 respondents statewide. The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber are consistently drawn from likely voters and newly registered voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters. Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.