New Florida Chamber of Commerce Statewide Poll Shows Presidential Race Leaning Toward Hillary Clinton in Florida

Poll Also Shows Rubio Increasing his Lead Over Murphy

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (October 21, 2016) – As Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leave the Presidential debates and make their final push before the election, the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) statewide poll shows the presidential race moving in Hillary Clinton’s direction, yet still within the margin of error.

“I’ve had the ability to cover presidential elections for decades and in the last weeks of the election, Florida’s voting numbers are known for changing,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Political Strategy at the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “As of today, more than ¼ of Florida voters have already requested vote-by-mail ballots, and many will choose to vote early. The Florida Chamber tracks these early and vote-by-mail numbers daily at www.FloridaChamber.com/Elections. There’s also more to this election than just the top of the ticket. There are important state House and Senate races taking place all across Florida and we encourage all Floridians to get out and vote, either by mail, early or on November 8.”

While they may not like Clinton or Trump, Floridians like Marco Rubio more than they dislike him. Marco Rubio has increased his lead over Patrick Murphy and is in a stronger position.

Politicians on the Ballot Are Viewed Unfavorably:

Hillary Clinton
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
44%                 53%                 1%

Donald Trump
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
42%                 53%                 0%

Marco Rubio
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
48%                 42%                 2%

Patrick Murphy
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
27%                 30%                 25%

Key Facts About Florida Voters:

  • Jobs and the economy remain the number one concern among Florida voters at 22 percent, followed by education and schools at 12 percent.
  • Florida voters are more optimistic that Florida is moving in the right direction: 47 percent right direction and 33 percent wrong direction.

“We have been polling Governor Rick Scott since he was first elected and his job approval is at an all-time high,” said Johnson. “Florida voters can see that Governor Scott has continued to deliver on his job creation promises and has displayed strong leadership during Florida’s times of crisis.”

Governor Rick Scott:

Job Approval: More than half of Florida voters (54 percent) approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

  • 56 percent of Other voters approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 83 percent of Republicans approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 50 percent of women and 58 percent of men approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.

Favorability: Nearly half of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably.

  • 47 percent of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably, 40 percent view him unfavorably and 4 percent have never heard of him.

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46 percent to 42 percent in the General Election matchup. The Florida Chamber Political Institute’s statewide poll shows Clinton gaining a point since our previous poll in September.

Presidential Ticket:

  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 46%
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence 42%
  • Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 5%
  • Jill Stein/Ajamui Baraka 1%
  • Someone Else 2%
  • Undecided 4%
  • Refused 1%

South Florida Problem:

  • Trump continues to struggle in South Florida, trailing nearly 30 points in each media market.
    • Clinton leads Trump 60 percent to 33 percent in Miami, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.
    • Clinton leads Trump 63 percent to 33 percent in West Palm Beach, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.

Demographics:

  • Hillary Clinton is buoyed by her commanding lead among Hispanics.
    • Clinton leads Trump among Hispanics 59 percent to 28 percent with Johnson receiving 6 percent and Stein 0 percent.
  • Donald Trump has a strong lead among White voters
    • Trump leads Clinton among White voters 52 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 5% and Stein 1%.
  • A gender gap still exists – Trump leads among men and Clinton is dominating among women.
    • Trump leads Clinton among men 46 percent to 40 percent with Johnson receiving 5 percent and Stein 1 percent.
    • Clinton has a strong lead over Trump among women 51 percent to 39 percent with Johnson receiving 4 percent and Stein 1 percent.
  • Clinton and Trump each do equally well with their bases
    • Clinton earns the support of 79 percent of Democrats. (Florida has 4,834,175 registered Democrats)
    • Trump earns the support of 78 percent of Republicans. (Florida has 4,526,024 registered Republicans)
    • Johnson is supported by 3 percent of Democrats and 5 percent of Republicans.
    • Stein is supported by 2 percent of Democrats and 0 percent of Republicans.
  • Clinton leads Trump among voters from minor parties or who are unaffiliated. (Florida has 3,371,200 minor or unaffiliated voters)
    • Clinton leads Trump among unaffiliated voters 46 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 7 percent and Stein 1 percent.

U.S. Senate: Marco Rubio has extended his lead over Patrick Murphy.

  • Marco Rubio 51%
  • Patrick Murphy 37%
  • Someone Else 1%
  • Undecided/Refused 11%

Demographics:

  • Marco Rubio continues to lead Patrick Murphy as he has in every FCPI poll – a credit to his strength among various demographic groups.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 52 percent to 46 percent among Hispanic voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 60 percent to 33 percent among White voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy among both men and women.
      • Rubio leads Murphy 56 percent to 36 percent among men.
      • Rubio leads Murphy  52 percent to 42 percent among women
      • Rubio’s lead among voters from other parties almost mirrors his lead in the general election (17 percent). Rubio leads Murphy 53 percent to 36 percent among voters from minor parties or who have no party affiliation.
      • Rubio holds on to his base more so than Murphy.
        • Rubio has the support of 89% of Republicans with Murphy receiving 7%.
        • Murphy receives the support of 71% of Democrats, with Rubio receiving 20%.

ABOUT THIS POLL:  The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on October 16-19, 2016 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. The sample size included 507 respondents statewide. The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber are consistently drawn from likely voters and newly registered voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters. Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.

Likely Florida Voters Have Negative Feelings Towards Current Presidential Party Front Runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Edie Ousley, 850-521-1231 or 850-251-6261
eousley@flchamber.com

Florida Voters Approve of the Job Governor Rick Scott is
Doing and Believe Florida is Headed in the Right Direction

ORLANDO (September 29 , 2015) – The latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll released today shows Floridians view the two candidates leading in the polls for the Republican and Democratic nominations for President –Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump –more negative than positive.

  • Hillary Clinton: Of likely Florida voters, the Florida Chamber poll shows only 37 percent have a favorable opinion, while 57 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her.
  • Donald Trump: Likely Florida voters have a 35 percent favorable opinion, with 53 percent having an unfavorable opinion of him.
  • Jeb Bush: Likely Florida voters have a 48 percent favorable opinion of him compared to 39 percent having an unfavorable opinion.

“In 1980 when I was serving as a director on Ronald Reagan’s Florida presidential team, and the race was between Reagan, George Bush, John Connally and others, Reagan wasn’t the front runner, yet he ultimately was elected president,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President for Political Strategies for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

“We’re more than five months away from the primary, and the front runner today very well may not be the front runner in March, 2016,” said Andrew Wiggins, Senior Director of Campaigns and Elections for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

 

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Although the primaries are more than five months away, and it’s impossible to predict, below are some potential scenarios:

  • Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 42 to 41 percent, but Jeb Bush beats Hillary Clinton 48 to 37 percent.
  • In a scenario where Jeb Bush is the Republican candidate, Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump is an Independent, Hillary Clinton leads Jeb Bush 35 percent to 32 percent, with Donald Trump receiving 21 percent of the vote.

If The Race Were Held Today:

In the Presidential Republican primary, Donald Trump leads with 25 percent, while Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are all within the margin of error of each other.

  • Donald Trump – 25 percent
  • Marco Rubio – 14 percent
  • Jeb Bush – 13 percent
  • Carly Fiorina – 11 percent
  • Ben Carson – 9 percent
  • Ted Cruz – 6 percent

Right/Wrong Direction:

Additionally, the recent statewide Florida Chamber political poll shows almost half of Floridians believe Florida is heading in the right direction, and nearly half approving of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

  • 44 percent of Floridians believe Florida is heading in the right direction, compared to 37 percent that think we’re heading in the wrong direction, and
  • 48 percent of Floridians approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor, while 39 disapprove.

 

Top Issues Among Likely Voters:

Also, likely Florida voters believe the economy is the most important issue facing Florida. Specifically:

  • 24 percent of likely voters say job creation and the improving the economy is the most important issue facing Florida
  • 13 percent of Florida voters believe education should is the most important issue in the state,
  • 9 percent of registered voters believe healthcare is the most important issue, and
  • 6 percent of Florida voters believe immigration is the most important issue our state is facing.

Constitutional Amendments:

Voters will vote on several Constitutional Amendments that are expected to be on the ballot.

Solar Amendments:

With the two competing solar amendments, one appears to be winning while the other is losing.

  • Limits or Prevents Barriers: 41 percent support while 35 percent oppose.
  • Rights of Electricity Consumers Regarding Solar Energy Choice: 76 percent support while 7 percent oppose.

Medical Marijuana:

After losing in 2014, the medical marijuana amendment continues gaining support, with 67 percent supporting and 27 percent opposing.

 

ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber political poll was conducted September 16-20, 2015, and the margin of error is +/- 4 with a 95 percent confidence level. Below are crosstabs.

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The Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations, aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as critical to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FloridaChamber.com for more information.