New Florida Chamber of Commerce Statewide Poll Shows Presidential Race Leaning Toward Hillary Clinton in Florida

Poll Also Shows Rubio Increasing his Lead Over Murphy

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (October 21, 2016) – As Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leave the Presidential debates and make their final push before the election, the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) statewide poll shows the presidential race moving in Hillary Clinton’s direction, yet still within the margin of error.

“I’ve had the ability to cover presidential elections for decades and in the last weeks of the election, Florida’s voting numbers are known for changing,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Political Strategy at the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “As of today, more than ¼ of Florida voters have already requested vote-by-mail ballots, and many will choose to vote early. The Florida Chamber tracks these early and vote-by-mail numbers daily at www.FloridaChamber.com/Elections. There’s also more to this election than just the top of the ticket. There are important state House and Senate races taking place all across Florida and we encourage all Floridians to get out and vote, either by mail, early or on November 8.”

While they may not like Clinton or Trump, Floridians like Marco Rubio more than they dislike him. Marco Rubio has increased his lead over Patrick Murphy and is in a stronger position.

Politicians on the Ballot Are Viewed Unfavorably:

Hillary Clinton
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
44%                 53%                 1%

Donald Trump
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
42%                 53%                 0%

Marco Rubio
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
48%                 42%                 2%

Patrick Murphy
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
27%                 30%                 25%

Key Facts About Florida Voters:

  • Jobs and the economy remain the number one concern among Florida voters at 22 percent, followed by education and schools at 12 percent.
  • Florida voters are more optimistic that Florida is moving in the right direction: 47 percent right direction and 33 percent wrong direction.

“We have been polling Governor Rick Scott since he was first elected and his job approval is at an all-time high,” said Johnson. “Florida voters can see that Governor Scott has continued to deliver on his job creation promises and has displayed strong leadership during Florida’s times of crisis.”

Governor Rick Scott:

Job Approval: More than half of Florida voters (54 percent) approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

  • 56 percent of Other voters approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 83 percent of Republicans approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 50 percent of women and 58 percent of men approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.

Favorability: Nearly half of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably.

  • 47 percent of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably, 40 percent view him unfavorably and 4 percent have never heard of him.

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46 percent to 42 percent in the General Election matchup. The Florida Chamber Political Institute’s statewide poll shows Clinton gaining a point since our previous poll in September.

Presidential Ticket:

  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 46%
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence 42%
  • Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 5%
  • Jill Stein/Ajamui Baraka 1%
  • Someone Else 2%
  • Undecided 4%
  • Refused 1%

South Florida Problem:

  • Trump continues to struggle in South Florida, trailing nearly 30 points in each media market.
    • Clinton leads Trump 60 percent to 33 percent in Miami, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.
    • Clinton leads Trump 63 percent to 33 percent in West Palm Beach, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.

Demographics:

  • Hillary Clinton is buoyed by her commanding lead among Hispanics.
    • Clinton leads Trump among Hispanics 59 percent to 28 percent with Johnson receiving 6 percent and Stein 0 percent.
  • Donald Trump has a strong lead among White voters
    • Trump leads Clinton among White voters 52 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 5% and Stein 1%.
  • A gender gap still exists – Trump leads among men and Clinton is dominating among women.
    • Trump leads Clinton among men 46 percent to 40 percent with Johnson receiving 5 percent and Stein 1 percent.
    • Clinton has a strong lead over Trump among women 51 percent to 39 percent with Johnson receiving 4 percent and Stein 1 percent.
  • Clinton and Trump each do equally well with their bases
    • Clinton earns the support of 79 percent of Democrats. (Florida has 4,834,175 registered Democrats)
    • Trump earns the support of 78 percent of Republicans. (Florida has 4,526,024 registered Republicans)
    • Johnson is supported by 3 percent of Democrats and 5 percent of Republicans.
    • Stein is supported by 2 percent of Democrats and 0 percent of Republicans.
  • Clinton leads Trump among voters from minor parties or who are unaffiliated. (Florida has 3,371,200 minor or unaffiliated voters)
    • Clinton leads Trump among unaffiliated voters 46 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 7 percent and Stein 1 percent.

U.S. Senate: Marco Rubio has extended his lead over Patrick Murphy.

  • Marco Rubio 51%
  • Patrick Murphy 37%
  • Someone Else 1%
  • Undecided/Refused 11%

Demographics:

  • Marco Rubio continues to lead Patrick Murphy as he has in every FCPI poll – a credit to his strength among various demographic groups.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 52 percent to 46 percent among Hispanic voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 60 percent to 33 percent among White voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy among both men and women.
      • Rubio leads Murphy 56 percent to 36 percent among men.
      • Rubio leads Murphy  52 percent to 42 percent among women
      • Rubio’s lead among voters from other parties almost mirrors his lead in the general election (17 percent). Rubio leads Murphy 53 percent to 36 percent among voters from minor parties or who have no party affiliation.
      • Rubio holds on to his base more so than Murphy.
        • Rubio has the support of 89% of Republicans with Murphy receiving 7%.
        • Murphy receives the support of 71% of Democrats, with Rubio receiving 20%.

ABOUT THIS POLL:  The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on October 16-19, 2016 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. The sample size included 507 respondents statewide. The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber are consistently drawn from likely voters and newly registered voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters. Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.

Poll: Floridians Support Solar But Don’t Support Proposed Amendment That Could Increase Energy Cost

 

45% of Floridians Think Florida is Heading in the Right Direction

TALLAHASSEE, FL. (August 31 , 2015) – The latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll released today shows that Floridians support solar energy, but they do not support a proposed solar amendment that could drive up energy costs. Only 41 percent of likely Florida voters support Limits or Prevents Barriers to Local Solar Electricity Supply.

“Florida voters clearly support solar, but with 30 proposed constitutional amendments attempting to make their way onto the ballot and into Florida’s Constitution, voters will be looking closely at those that might increase their utility costs,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Political Strategy for the Florida Chamber.

The Florida Chamber filed an Amicus Brief with the Florida Supreme Court opposing this amendment. As noted in the brief prepared by former Florida Supreme Court Justice Raoul Cantero, the Florida Chamber believes:

  • The solar initiative violates the single-subject requirement, and
  • The title and summary of the amendment are deceptive and misleading to Florida voters.

The group behind Limits or Prevents Barriers to Local Solar Electricity Supply must defend their proposed amendment before the Florida Supreme court on Tuesday.

Additional Florida Chamber survey results show that more Floridians believe Florida is heading in the right direction and almost half approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

  • 45 percent (nearly one out of two) of Floridians believe Florida is heading in the right direction, and
  • 48 percent (nearly half) of Floridians approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

Also, likely Florida voters believe the economy is the most important issue facing Florida. Specifically:

  • 22 percent of registered Florida voters say job creation and improving the economy is the most important issue facing our state,
  • 13 percent of registered Florida voters believe education should be the top issue in the state,
  • 11 percent of Florida voters are concerned about health care and the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (known as ObamaCare), and
  • Immigration is gaining traction and seen as the most important issue by 8 percent of voters.

The survey, conducted on August 8-14, 2015 during live landline (62 percent) and cellular (38 percent) telephone calls, included a cross section of 611 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Please note:  The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber Political Institute are consistently drawn from likely voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters.  Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting this November.

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The Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations, aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as critical to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FloridaChamber.com for more information.

Latest Florida Chamber of Commerce Poll Shows Floridians Overwhelmingly Support Cell Phone/Cable TV Tax Cut

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Edie Ousley, 850-521-1231 or 850-251-6261
eousley@flchamber.com

TALLAHASSEE, FL. (June 1 , 2015) – By a margin of nearly five to one, Floridians support cutting taxes on cell phones and cable television, according to the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll released today.

“Lowering the cost of living and the cost of doing business through targeted tax reforms is a top priority of the Florida Chamber of Commerce,”  said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of the Florida Chamber Political Institute. “Clearly, voters agree with Governor Scott and the Florida Chamber that lowering cell phone and cable TV taxes will put money back into the pockets of Floridians and help make Florida more competitive.”

Of the 605 Florida likely voters polled, more than 70 percent support a reduction in the Communications Service Tax (CST), while 15 percent oppose and only 12 percent were unsure. The CST tax cut is among proposals lawmakers are expected to consider during the June 1-20, 2015 Special Legislative Session.

Right/Wrong Direction and Financial Situation:

With more than 865,000 private-sector jobs created in the last five years, and an unemployment rate at 5.6 percent, the Florida Chamber’s poll also shows Florida voters still believe Florida is headed in the right direction, and that they are financially better off today than a year ago.

  • Right/Wrong Direction: 
    42 percent agree Florida is headed in the right direction. This number remains about the same as 2014 when 43 percent said Florida is headed in the right direction and 41 percent saying wrong direction. (Cross-tabs included)
  • Financial Situation: 
    40 percent of voters believe their financial situation is better today than a year ago – an eight percent jump from this time last year. (Cross-tabs included).

    • Feb/March, 2015– 36 percent better off; 25 percent worse off.
    • Feb/March, 2014 – 28 percent better off; 36 percent worse off.

Top Issues on the Minds of Florida Voters:

While the top three issues continue to be jobs/economy, education and healthcare, there has been significant changes in the numbers.

  • Jobs/Economy
    19 percent of Florida voters cite this as their number one issue – down 10 percent from May 2014.
  • Healthcare
    17 percent of the voters rank this as their number one issue – slightly up from 13 percent in May 2014.
  • Education
    16 percent of likely voters rank education as their top priority – remaining steady from previous polls.
  • Balance the State Budget, Crime and Immigration
    were the other issues selected by Florida voters.

The poll of 605 respondents, conducted on May 14-20, 2015 during live telephone interviews of likely voters, has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample was drawn from frequent voters and respondents were again screened for voter registration during the interview. The sample was balanced according to all known demographic factors. Sixty-four percent of the respondents were interviewed via landlines and 35 percent via cell numbers. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.5 percent, with a 95 percent confidence level.  This poll was conducted by Florida Chamber Political Institute, a research arm of the Florida Chamber.

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The Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations, aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as critical to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FloridaChamber.com for more information.

Newest Florida Chamber Poll Shows Voters Confident, Yet Concerned About Federal Government

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Edie Ousley, 850-521-1231 or 850-251-6261
eousley@flchamber.com

 

Former Governor Jeb Bush, U.S. Senator Marco Rubio Receive High Favorability Ratings

TALLAHASSEE, FL. (March 4, 2015) – Florida voters are increasingly more confident about the direction Florida is headed, yet remain significantly concerned about the federal government, according to the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll released today.

“Our results show Floridians are more confident in Florida’s economy,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Political Strategy at the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “These signs of optimism are good for our economy, for our families and for our small businesses. Despite the gridlock in Washington, D.C., this poll shows Florida is increasingly confident that Florida is moving in the right direction. As Governor Scott says, ‘It’s working,’ and the voters agree.”

Florida’s Right/Wrong Direction:

  • 46 percent of voters say Florida is heading in the right direction, compared to 32 who say wrong direction. This is a strong increase over October 2014, when polling data showed 43 percent to 38 percent respectively.

Congressional/Presidential Approval Rating:

  • 70 percent of Florida voters disapprove of the job Congress is doing, while President Obama’s job approval rating remains upside down at 47 percent approve compared to 51 percent who disapprove.

Possible Presidential Candidates:

  • Former Governor Jeb Bush’s favorability rating remains positive at 52 percent favorable compared to 33 percent unfavorable.
  • U. S. Senator Marco Rubio’s favorability rating is positive at 42 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable.
    Former U. S. Senator and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s favorability rating is within the margin of error with 48 percent favorable to 47 percent unfavorable.

Head-to-Head Primary Matchups:

President:
  • Jeb Bush earns 32 percent, followed by Scott Walker at 18 percent and Marco Rubio at 10 percent.
  • Jeb Bush vs. Marco Rubio only:  Bush earns 51 percent to Rubio’s 35 percent.
U. S. Senate:
  • Congresswoman and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz earns 42 percent, Congressman Alan Grayson is at 8 percent, Congresswoman Gwen Graham and Congressman Patrick Murphy tied at  7 percent each.

Other Findings Include:

Florida Families:

Families say they are financially better off today than a year ago.

  • Feb/March, 2015 – 36 percent better off; 25 percent worse off.
  • Feb/March, 2014 – 28 percent better off; 36 percent worse off.
Job Approval:
  • Governor Rick Scott – 48 percent approve of the job he’s doing.
    Florida Legislature – 42 percent approve of the job they’re doing.
Top Issue of Concern:
  • Jobs/Economy – 22 percent,
    Education – 17 percent,
    Healthcare – 8 percent, and
    Immigration – 7 percent.

Methodology:

Eight hundred and two Florida voters were interviewed by professional telemarketers February 18-23, 2015. The sample was drawn from frequent voters and respondents were again screened for voter registration by telemarketers. The sample was balanced according to all known demographic factors. Sixty-five percent of the respondents were interviewed via landlines and 34 percent via cell numbers. The margin of error for this survey is ±3.5%, with a 95% confidence level. This poll was conducted by Florida Chamber Political Institute.

 

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The Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations, aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as critical to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FloridaChamber.com for more information.

New Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Governor Rick Scott Leading Charlie Crist by Five Percentage Points

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Edie Ousley, 850-521-1231 or 850-251-6261
eousley@flchamber.com

TALLAHASSEE, FL. (October 30, 2014) – The latest Florida Chamber of Commerce Political Institute poll shows likely voters supporting Governor Rick Scott over Charlie Crist and Adrian Wyllie. In head-to-head matchups, the poll of likely Florida voters shows Governor Scott with 44 percent, Crist with 39 percent and Wyllie with 4 percent.

“While the only poll that really matters is the one that takes place on Election Day, the Florida Chamber’s most recent poll shows Floridians are listening to the candidates and appear poised to keep Florida moving in the right direction,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Political Strategy.

The poll, conducted October 27-29, surveyed 508 likely voters through telephone interviews by Cherry Communications. Of those surveyed, 42 percent were Republican, 41 percent were Democrats and 17 percent were other parties. The margin of error is +/- 4 percent.

Key polling results also show, voter confidence is strengthening. More Floridians, 43 percent, believe Florida is headed in the right direction as compared to 40 percent in September’s poll. Voters who believe Florida is headed in the wrong direction has dropped to 38 percent from 44 percent one month ago.

Additional poll results show:

  • Governor Scott leading Crist by 47 percent to 42 percent among Floridians that have already voted.
  • Governor Scott leads in all age categories 40 and above.
  • Governor Scott is leading among males, while Crist leads among females.

In the race for Attorney General, Agriculture Commissioner and Chief Financial Officer, incumbents Pam Bondi, Adam Putnam and Jeff Atwater appear headed for victory.

  • Attorney General Pam Bondi leads challenger George Sheldon by 48 to 32 percent,
  • Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam is leading Thaddeus Hamilton by 46 to 30 percent, and
  • CFO Jeff Atwater leads challenger William Ranking 50 to 32 percent.

In terms of amendments on the ballot, the poll shows Amendment 2 failing to reach the 60 percent threshold for passage with 55 percent supporting and 40 percent opposing.

Please Note: The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber of Commerce Political Institute are consistently drawn from likely voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters. Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.

 

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Established in 1916 as Florida’s first statewide business advocacy organization, the Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations, aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as critical to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FloridaChamber.com for more information.

New Florida Chamber Political Poll Shows Strengthening Voter Confidence & Governor Scott Outpaces Opponents in Head-to-Head Matches

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Edie Ousley, 850-521-1231 or 850-251-6261
eousley@flchamber.com

 

TALLAHASSEE, FL. (August 18, 2014) – While jobs and the economy continue to rank as top issues among Florida’s likely voters, the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll shows likely voters have a more positive view of the future and favor Governor Rick Scott in the state’s top leadership race.

“While top concerns for voters remain jobs and the economy, their support of Governor Scott is a signal they approve of his strong ability to create private-sector jobs,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of the Florida Chamber Political Institute. “This is evidenced by the fact that 43 percent of the voters believe Florida’s unemployment rate is lower since Rick Scott took office.”

Additional Polling Data Shows:

  • Of the 627 Florida likely voters polled, 29 percent rank job creation and the economy as their top issues, and
  • For six straight months, a plurality of voters believe the Sunshine State is headed in the right direction – 43 percent. (Based on Florida Chamber polling conducted in February 2014, June 2014 and August 2014.)

Governor Rick Scott’s job approval rating continues to remain positive, with 50 percent of likely voters approving of the job he’s doing. At the same time, Democrat gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist’s favorability continues to drop – down to 36 percent from 41 percent in June.

In Head-to-Head Matchups:

  • Rick Scott vs. Charlie Crist: Scott earns 44 percent to Crist’s 41 percent.
  • Rick Scott vs. Charlie Crist vs. Adrian Wyllie: Scott earns 41 percent, Crist gets 35 percent and Libertarian Adrain Wyllie earns 4 percent.

 

Crosstabs

Candidate Dem Rep Other Male Female
Scott 11 73 31 47 35
Crist 70 8 25 30 41
Wyllie 2 3 14 6 2
Other 6 3 10 4 7
Undecided 11 13 17 13 15

 

“I believe a major reason Charlie Crist is visibly losing support is because voters are beginning to realize that Rick Scott’s private-sector pro-jobs plan is working and that Florida continues to move in the right direction,” said Mark Wilson, President and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

On the national level, President Obama’s job approval rating remains upside down as 41 percent approved and 54 percent disapprove.

The poll, conducted on August 10-13, 2014 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

Additional Results Show:

  • Education, healthcare, and immigration round out the top three issues voters are most concerned about – 19 percent, 6 percent and 6 percent respectively.
  • By a margin of 36 percent to 25 percent, voters believe they are financially better off than they were a year ago.

 

Please Note: The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber Political Institute are consistently drawn from likely voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters. Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.

 

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Established in 1916 as Florida’s first statewide business advocacy organization, the Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations, aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as critical to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FloridaChamber.com for more information.