New Florida Chamber of Commerce Statewide Poll Shows Presidential Race Leaning Toward Hillary Clinton in Florida

Poll Also Shows Rubio Increasing his Lead Over Murphy

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (October 21, 2016) – As Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump leave the Presidential debates and make their final push before the election, the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) statewide poll shows the presidential race moving in Hillary Clinton’s direction, yet still within the margin of error.

“I’ve had the ability to cover presidential elections for decades and in the last weeks of the election, Florida’s voting numbers are known for changing,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President of Political Strategy at the Florida Chamber of Commerce. “As of today, more than ¼ of Florida voters have already requested vote-by-mail ballots, and many will choose to vote early. The Florida Chamber tracks these early and vote-by-mail numbers daily at www.FloridaChamber.com/Elections. There’s also more to this election than just the top of the ticket. There are important state House and Senate races taking place all across Florida and we encourage all Floridians to get out and vote, either by mail, early or on November 8.”

While they may not like Clinton or Trump, Floridians like Marco Rubio more than they dislike him. Marco Rubio has increased his lead over Patrick Murphy and is in a stronger position.

Politicians on the Ballot Are Viewed Unfavorably:

Hillary Clinton
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
44%                 53%                 1%

Donald Trump
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
42%                 53%                 0%

Marco Rubio
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
48%                 42%                 2%

Patrick Murphy
Favorable       Unfavorable   Never Heard Of
27%                 30%                 25%

Key Facts About Florida Voters:

  • Jobs and the economy remain the number one concern among Florida voters at 22 percent, followed by education and schools at 12 percent.
  • Florida voters are more optimistic that Florida is moving in the right direction: 47 percent right direction and 33 percent wrong direction.

“We have been polling Governor Rick Scott since he was first elected and his job approval is at an all-time high,” said Johnson. “Florida voters can see that Governor Scott has continued to deliver on his job creation promises and has displayed strong leadership during Florida’s times of crisis.”

Governor Rick Scott:

Job Approval: More than half of Florida voters (54 percent) approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

  • 56 percent of Other voters approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 83 percent of Republicans approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.
  • 50 percent of women and 58 percent of men approve of the job Governor Scott is doing.

Favorability: Nearly half of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably.

  • 47 percent of Floridians view Governor Scott favorably, 40 percent view him unfavorably and 4 percent have never heard of him.

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Presidential Election: Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46 percent to 42 percent in the General Election matchup. The Florida Chamber Political Institute’s statewide poll shows Clinton gaining a point since our previous poll in September.

Presidential Ticket:

  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 46%
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence 42%
  • Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 5%
  • Jill Stein/Ajamui Baraka 1%
  • Someone Else 2%
  • Undecided 4%
  • Refused 1%

South Florida Problem:

  • Trump continues to struggle in South Florida, trailing nearly 30 points in each media market.
    • Clinton leads Trump 60 percent to 33 percent in Miami, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.
    • Clinton leads Trump 63 percent to 33 percent in West Palm Beach, with Gary Johnson receiving 2% and Jill Stein receiving 2%.

Demographics:

  • Hillary Clinton is buoyed by her commanding lead among Hispanics.
    • Clinton leads Trump among Hispanics 59 percent to 28 percent with Johnson receiving 6 percent and Stein 0 percent.
  • Donald Trump has a strong lead among White voters
    • Trump leads Clinton among White voters 52 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 5% and Stein 1%.
  • A gender gap still exists – Trump leads among men and Clinton is dominating among women.
    • Trump leads Clinton among men 46 percent to 40 percent with Johnson receiving 5 percent and Stein 1 percent.
    • Clinton has a strong lead over Trump among women 51 percent to 39 percent with Johnson receiving 4 percent and Stein 1 percent.
  • Clinton and Trump each do equally well with their bases
    • Clinton earns the support of 79 percent of Democrats. (Florida has 4,834,175 registered Democrats)
    • Trump earns the support of 78 percent of Republicans. (Florida has 4,526,024 registered Republicans)
    • Johnson is supported by 3 percent of Democrats and 5 percent of Republicans.
    • Stein is supported by 2 percent of Democrats and 0 percent of Republicans.
  • Clinton leads Trump among voters from minor parties or who are unaffiliated. (Florida has 3,371,200 minor or unaffiliated voters)
    • Clinton leads Trump among unaffiliated voters 46 percent to 37 percent with Johnson receiving 7 percent and Stein 1 percent.

U.S. Senate: Marco Rubio has extended his lead over Patrick Murphy.

  • Marco Rubio 51%
  • Patrick Murphy 37%
  • Someone Else 1%
  • Undecided/Refused 11%

Demographics:

  • Marco Rubio continues to lead Patrick Murphy as he has in every FCPI poll – a credit to his strength among various demographic groups.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 52 percent to 46 percent among Hispanic voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 60 percent to 33 percent among White voters.
    • Rubio leads Murphy among both men and women.
      • Rubio leads Murphy 56 percent to 36 percent among men.
      • Rubio leads Murphy  52 percent to 42 percent among women
      • Rubio’s lead among voters from other parties almost mirrors his lead in the general election (17 percent). Rubio leads Murphy 53 percent to 36 percent among voters from minor parties or who have no party affiliation.
      • Rubio holds on to his base more so than Murphy.
        • Rubio has the support of 89% of Republicans with Murphy receiving 7%.
        • Murphy receives the support of 71% of Democrats, with Rubio receiving 20%.

ABOUT THIS POLL:  The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on October 16-19, 2016 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. The sample size included 507 respondents statewide. The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber are consistently drawn from likely voters and newly registered voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters. Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.

Politicians, Parties and Plaintiff Trial Lawyers are Unknown or Unliked in New Florida Chamber of Commerce Statewide Poll

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (August 24, 2016) – The latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) statewide poll shows Floridians either don’t know or don’t like politicians that will appear on their ballot, the parties they represent and the plaintiff trial lawyers that financially back many candidates.

With 12.3 million registered Florida voters, hundreds of thousands of which are newly registered since the last presidential election, and 40 new state senate districts that Florida voters will vote in for the first time, this remains one of the most unprecedented elections.

“A week sounds like a short time, but it can be a lifetime for a campaign and provide candidates the opportunity to make solid gains that can improve their outcome. It’s unusual to see this many undecided voters this close to the election, but for candidates, its good news. They still have time to move the voters,” said MARIAN JOHNSON, Senior Vice President of Government and Political Relations.

Politicians, Parties, and Plaintiff Trial Lawyers are Unknown or Unliked

Poll_082416

Key Facts About Florida Voters:

  • Jobs and the economy remain the number one concern among Florida voters at 21 percent, followed by education and schools at 13 percent.
  • 39 percent of Florida voters believe their families’ current financial situation is better today than a year ago, with 37 percent saying about the same.
  • Florida voters are virtually evenly split on how they feel on whether Florida is moving in the right direction – 40 percent right direction and 41 percent wrong direction.

 

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Presidential Election:
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 44 percent to 43 percent in the head-to-head General Election matchup. The Florida Chamber Political Institute poll shows Trump leads even more when third party candidates are added to the mix. Trump leads Clinton’s 44 percent to 41 percent with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 9 percent of the vote.

  • Donald Trump 44%
  • Hillary Clinton 43%
  • Someone Else 7%
  • Undecided 5%

Presidential Ticket:

  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence 44%
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 41%
  • Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 9%
  • Someone Else 2%
  • Undecided 4%

U.S. Senate:
Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy are each headed to comfortable wins to secure their party nominations.

  • Republican Ticket:
    Marco Rubio beats Carlos Beruff 68% to 19% with 10% undecided.
  • Democratic Ticket:
    Patrick Murphy beats Alan Grayson 40% to 11% with 38% undecided.

According to Florida Chamber of Commerce Senior Director of Campaign and Elections Andrew Wiggins, despite Trump’s small lead statewide, his current unfavorable rating may pose problems in certain state and local races.

“The data clearly shows that Donald Trump’s name recognition may impact republican candidates down ballot – particularly in large metropolitan South Florida areas. And, digging deep into the numbers, Trump continues to trail Hillary Clinton in South Florida, trailing by 19 points in Miami-Dade and by 15 points in West Palm Beach,” ANDREW WIGGINS explained.

Amendment 4:

If the election were held today, it appears almost 70 percent of voters would support the passage of Amendment 4 on the August 30 primary ballot and which unlocks the value of solar for Florida businesses and communities by removing the ad valorem taxes that solar installations carry on commercial properties under current law.

  • Yes 70%
  • No 14%

“Amendment 4 on the August 30 primary ballot will bring more solar jobs to Florida and help diversify our energy grid,” said SENATOR JEFF BRANDES (R – St. Petersburg, FL). “This poll shows a broad bipartisan support for solar in Florida, and everyone regardless of party affiliation should vote YES on or by August 30.”

Daily absentee and early voting (EAV) data shows that 1,153,497 Florida voters have already voted for the August 30th primary election. EAV is a major part of today’s elections, and the Florida Chamber is providing daily EAV reports broken down by county and legislative district. Click here to access the report – updated each day before 4 p.m.

 

ABOUT THIS POLL:
The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on August 17-22, 2016 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-4 percent. The sample size included 258 Democrats, 249 Republicans and 101 Others for a total of 608 respondents statewide. The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber are consistently drawn from likely voters and newly registered voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters.  Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.