Florida Chamber Chief Economist Dr. Jerry Parrish Details The Coronavirus’ Threats on Florida’s Economy
“With companies cutting their GDP forecasts, 30-year mortgages at an eight-year low, and manufacturers idling their factories because of supply-chain issues, all of this is having an effect on Florida’s economy.”
– Dr. Jerry Parrish
TALLAHASSEE, Fla (February 25, 2020) – Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Dr. Jerry Parrish says Florida should be “concerned, but not panicked” about the coronavirus’s threats on Florida’s economy.
“Yesterday the Dow dropped by more than 1,000 points, companies are cutting their GDP forecasts, 30-year mortgages are at an eight-year low, manufacturers are idling their factories because of supply chain issues. All of this is having an effect on Florida’s economy, and it could continue. This is certainly a concern, but it’s not anything to panic about,” Dr. Parrish explained in his latest Florida By The Numbers report.
According to Dr. Parrish, Florida’s most vulnerable industries include:
• International Visitors
• Cruise Passengers
• Manufacturing Jobs
The 10-year government bond, and the three-month T-bill are now showing an inversion.
“An inversion of the yield curve has been a reliable, but not perfect signal, of a future recession. This is one of the metrics that goes into the calculation of the probability of a Florida recession which is on TheFloridaScorecard.org,” Dr. Parrish explained. “The probability of Florida being in a recession over the next nine months has now increased to 24.1 percent.”
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Florida’s $10 Billion in Tax Advantages Getting National Attention
As President of the Florida Chamber of Commerce, I’ve been interviewed in the past two months by the Wall Street Journal, the New York Post, and several other news outlets and they all want to know the same thing- what are the significant tax advantages in Florida and what is the Florida Chamber doing to prepare for the expected job growth headed our way?
Thanks in large part to national tax reform, Governor Scott’s leadership and focus on jobs, and thanks to marketing by Pete Antonocci and our teammates at Enterprise Florida, Inc., leaders in other states are realizing the tax advantages of moving their families and businesses to Florida.
Following passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, employers nationwide announced pay raises, bonuses, lower prices, capital investments and more, due to the resulting benefits from federal tax reform. One would think this push to make America more competitive would be met with significant fanfare from all political stripes, but this has not been the case in certain states. Here are a few actual examples of what other states are doing:
- In California, two Assemblymen sought to punish businesses benefiting from federal tax reform by introducing a constitutional amendment that creates a new 10 percent tax on companies that have net earnings of more than one million dollars.
- A group of Northeastern states, including New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Connecticut, are planning to sue the federal government, claiming the federal tax bill “unfairly targets” high-tax states because of caps to state and local deductions, ignoring that their tax codes and economic models are the reason for their significant tax bill.
Unfortunately, politicians in high-tax states also have no issue with taxpayers in Florida and the rest of the nation subsidizing their state’s spending. This “Robin Hood”-type scheme is being exposed for what it really is – a failed tax and spend scheme.
Florida Chamber Chief Economist Dr. Jerry Parrish shares in his latest edition of By The Numbers, that $879,000 in income migrates to Florida every hour. Many high-tax states in the northeast are losing residents to Florida. In fact, 88,500 net new people in one year have moved to Florida from New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania alone.
Florida’s leaders know that a competitive tax climate increases corporate investment and creates jobs, and with 26 million people expected to call Florida home by 2030, two million net new jobs will need to be created in order to keep unemployment below five percent. This is one reason Forbes has listed Florida as the number one state for growth.
Not only does Florida have no personal state income tax, it has cut taxes and fees by $10 billion since 2010 and has created nearly 1.5 million private sector jobs -outpacing the nation in job growth. Furthermore, Dr. Parrish now predicts Florida will be a $1 trillion economy by the end of 2018.
Enterprise Florida, Inc. (EFI) is doing a good job marketing Florida’s friendly business climate and promoting the advantages of Florida. The Florida Chamber was pleased to partner with EFI to highlight why now is the right time for businesses in other states to move to Florida. Click here to see the Wall Street Journal ad campaign.
Yet, despite having the most pro-jobs governor in America, in the recently completed legislative session, lawmakers made Florida a little more expensive for families and Florida a little less competitive for businesses.
I’m so proud of the Florida Chamber’s team of advocates for stopping more than a dozen bad ideas from becoming law this past session. These bills would have increased employer mandates, implemented overreaching regulations and further worsened Florida’s troubling lawsuit abuse climate.
What Others Are Saying
Business leaders across Florida recognize the unique opportunity that Florida has to further grow jobs and create economic prosperity for all.
- Dr. Jackson Sasser, President of Santa Fe College and the Florida Chamber’s North Central Florida Regional Board Chair recently spoke about the importance of economic development – and the important role education plays – during a recent edition of the Florida Chamber’s Series on Free Enterprise.
- Representative Clay Ingram discussed how infrastructure and tourism investments play a role in Florida’s economic development, on the latest edition of the Florida Chamber’s Bottom Line.
- Husein Cumber, Executive Vice President of Florida East Coast Industries and Florida Chamber Northeast Regional Board Chair, was featured in the Florida Times Union sharing his support of Florida’s growing economy, and the Florida Job Growth Grant Fund which is helping transform Florida’s economy into next generation targeted industries.
While we’re looking forward to working with future legislative leadership, the Florida Chamber looks forward to ensuring candidates that believe in jobs and growing the economy are elected this fall.
Following a year in which sitting lawmakers earned the lowest grades in the history of the Florida Chamber’s Legislative Report Card, there is simply no time to waste in electing candidates that want to see Florida succeed.
Join the Conversation at the Florida Chamber Foundation’s Florida Business Leaders Summit on Prosperity & Economic Opportunity
Thank you for your strong support of the Florida Chamber. I look forward to working with you to ensure we continue to secure Florida’s future. If you have not yet registered for the Florida Chamber Foundation’s Florida Business Leaders’ Summit on Prosperity and Economic Opportunity on May 3 in Orlando, click here.
Florida Small Business Owners Concerned About Workforce Quality
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (January 22, 2018) – Ask a Florida small business owner what keeps them up at night and they’ll likely point to the latest Florida Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index Survey, which shows workforce quality and government regulations as the top concerns of Florida’s job creators for the second straight quarter.
“Businesses are telling us, loud and clear, that in order to grow, they need access to a talented workforce,” said Dr. Jerry Parrish, Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Florida Chamber Foundation. “The Florida Chamber Foundation’s recent Florida Jobs 2030 report confirms this research by showing that the future of work is changing, and as this quarter’s Small Business Index once again shows workforce quality is top of mind for Florida’s businesses. Another trend we are seeing is businesses remain concerned about the impact government regulations have on their ability to grow. At the same time, we are seeing business confidence remain high. This signals a confidence in Florida’s economy, one that is echoed in the Florida Chamber Foundation’s newly released Florida Leading Index, which indicates job creation is expected to be substantially higher than the U.S. average.”
The Florida Chamber’s quarterly Small Business Index statewide survey shows small businesses are most concerned about:
- Workforce quality (27 percent),
- Government regulations (13 percent),
- Healthcare costs (11 percent),
- Lawsuit abuse (9 percent),
- Access to capital (8 percent).
Of Florida small businesses, 52 percent of respondents expect to hire in the next six months – up slightly from 48 percent in our Q4 2017 survey.
“Florida’s small businesses continue to face a number of challenges, including increased concerns about workforce quality and government regulations,” said Glenda Hood, Chair of the Florida Chamber’s Small Business Council, and Founding Partner, triSect. “The Florida Chamber’s Small Business Council looks forward to working together to identify and support solutions that will help and grow Florida’s small business community.”
About the Survey:
The Florida Chamber’s Small Business Index Survey was conducted electronically December 13, 2017 through January 12, 2018. 30 percent of respondents employ less than five employees, while 41 percent employ five to 49 employees. Click here to view the full report.
Established in 1916 as Florida’s first statewide business advocacy organization, the Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as crucial to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Florida Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FLChamber.com for more information.
What is Florida’s Economic Outlook?
Join us in Tallahassee on January 9 for the Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2018 Economic Outlook Summit, held in conjunction with the Florida Chamber’s annual Capitol Days event. During this statewide event, the Florida Chamber Foundation’s Chief Economist Dr. Jerry Parrish will lead conversations with economists from around the state to discuss Florida’s economic outlook for 2018.
Connect with business executives Florida’s leading companies, hear from the Chamber Foundation’s Council of Business Economists, receive updates on Florida’s international and global trade status, and engage in conversations about Florida’s leading and emerging industries.
Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Provides Look at Future of Florida’s Workforce
This morning, Dr. Jerry Parrish joined the Florida House Post-Secondary Education Subcommittee to discuss the future of Florida’s workforce and the Florida Chamber Foundation’s recent report- Florida Jobs 2030. Click here to read Dr. Jerry Parrish’s full testimony.
What does the future of Florida’s talent, workforce and skills look like?
By 2030, Florida will add six million more residents and will need to create 2 million net new jobs. At the same time, rapid innovation technology will drive increased automation, globalization, digitization, and advances in machine learning in the next decade and a half.
While these shifts are already well underway, by 2030 these and other disruptive technologies will lead to the development of new jobs and a shift in the skills and competencies required for existing jobs within the state’s economy. Though many of the jobs Floridians will hold in 2030 have not yet emerged, Florida has a strategic opportunity to prepare for these shifts by leveraging its many assets and changing demographics to make decisions that will have generational benefits and create economic opportunity for millions of Floridians.
Read the Report and Share Your Thoughts
Florida Jobs 2030 is an analysis of the state’s 21st-century jobs. This analysis draws on labor market research and qualitative interviews with more than 90 stakeholders from Florida’s business, education, nonprofit, and workforce communities to examine these 21st-century jobs, the skills required to perform them, and anticipated gaps in the labor market. Click here to read the report and tell us your thoughts on where Florida’s workforce future is headed.
During the Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2017 Future of Florida Forum, education, workforce and economic development leaders dedicated an entire morning to discussing how Florida can be ready for the future of workforce. During that event, the Florida Chamber Foundation also unveiled Florida’s newest education website, Launch My Career Florida.
A talented workforce is Florida’s best long-term economic strategy, and businesses around the state agree that talent is quickly replacing the tax incentive as the economic tool of choice. There are several ways you can continue the conversation:
- Become a part of the Florida Chamber Foundation’s Business Alliance for Early Learning
- Share Launch My Career Florida in your community
- Sign up to receive education and workforce information that matters to you
Testimony on Florida Jobs 2030
ON: Florida Jobs 2030
TO: House Post-Secondary Education Subcommittee
BY: Jerry Parrish, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Florida Chamber Foundation
DATE: October 11, 2017
Good afternoon Madam Chairman and members of the committee. I am Dr. Jerry Parrish – I am the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the Florida Chamber Foundation.
Today I’ve been asked to discuss our recent report called Florida Jobs 2030. This report is available to everyone for free – at www.theFloridaChamber.com
Before I do that I want to remind the Committee that we have online The Florida Scorecard.
On it we track the metrics that are important to Florida’s Future. We have data at the State level as you see here, and we have it for every county in Florida. There are hundreds of thousands of data points available for use by everyone – all of it is Free to use. Because we believe that we can track Florida’s progress through the use of the right metrics.
For each of Florida’s 6 Pillars there is additional data. Here you see the metrics for our Talent Supply and Education pillar. You may notice the color scheme – if it’s green it means we’re going in the right direction. Red means we’re not – and the light blue means we had no change.
The Florida Chamber Foundation has been doing research a long time. In the nearly 49 year history of the Chamber Foundation, we have produced many research reports that have led to good policy actions by the Florida Legislature.
Our latest report is called Florida Jobs 2030.
The Chamber Foundation is thankful for the support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation for this project.
In this report, more than 90 stakeholders from all areas of Florida were interviewed.
- Private-sector companies, both large and small businesses
- Professionals involved in career training and development
- State college, and state university leaders
- Economic Development Professionals
- Non-profit leaders
- Many local chambers of commerce
- Foundations who work in this field
- Association partners of the Chamber Foundation
Results from these hundreds of hours of interviews were combined with quantitative data on the number of jobs available in categories chosen for their growth potential in this state and their ability to provide high-wage jobs and career options for Florida families.
In the report, we detail the 5 Target Industries that we expect to grow the most, and produce the most high-wage jobs for Florida between now and the year 2030. These categories include:
- Aerospace and Aviation
- Health Care & Life Sciences
- Finance and Professional Services
- Logistics & Distribution
For each of these industries, we note the entry-level, middle-skill, and high-skill jobs available in the career lattice – and what qualifications someone would need to get these differing skill jobs. This one for Aerospace and Aviation shows potential paths of how someone could get into the industry and progress as they obtain higher skills.
This slide shows the Logistics and Distribution Cluster – and you may remember that with the Chamber Foundation’s Trade & Logistics Studies – both 1 and 2 – this is something we have been doing research on for a long time.
For each of the 5 target industries, we show the specific jobs, their current employment, expected growth, median wage and the education required for an entry-level position.
This slide shows the 2 industry clusters expected to grow the fastest in the upcoming years. As in the other 3, the report provides detailed job projections, the entry, middle- and high-skill jobs that are expected to grow as well as the salaries that are possible.
You know, people often ask me how our research is being used. I am pleased to say that we not only has CareerSource Florida been using our research, we also have Florida’s State College System using our report to align their curriculum to what Florida needs to secure its future. Just last week the Florida College System hosted a 2-day convening of leadership teams from all of its 28 colleges that I participated in – along with economists from Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity and CareerSource Florida. In it the college leadership team reviewed how their College was meeting the talent needs of local businesses in these 5 target industries. This will align Florida’s talent supply with the expected growth in these industries that diversify Florida’s economy and create high-wage jobs.
I would like to take this time to remind the Committee that this report is part of the Florida Chamber Foundation’s Florida 2030 Project.
Our organization has visited all 67 counties in Florida and discussed Florida’s future with more than 10,000 people for the Florida 2030 project, developing a strategic plan for our state – discussing Florida’s future and what we need to do to prepare. You will see that report around March 2018.
Finally – I want to let you know that the Florida Chamber Foundation partnered with the U.S. Chamber on a website called Launch My Career. We help a press conference at our Future of Florida Forum. It is a website that people can go to and get information on potential careers, what the demand is expected to be and what the pay is. You can find that website at www.LaunchMyCareerFL.org
Thank you Madam Chairman and the Committee for allowing me to present today – I will be glad to answer any questions that you may have.
Florida Job Numbers: Is Your County On Par With the Rest of Florida?
In the most recent Florida Chamber Foundation’s By The Numbers, the Florida Chamber Foundation takes a closer look at Florida’s current job numbers found on TheFloridaScorecard.org and the impact of Hurricane Irma on the state’s insurance industry.
Overall, job creation year-over-year remains higher than the U.S., with a 2.6 percent increase for Florida vs. 1.4 percent increase for the nation (see attached for county-by-county).
By The Numbers: Foreign Direct Investment
Florida needs to create 2 million net new jobs between now and 2030, but will our state be prepared for the future – even as job creation slows down?
Currently, more than 266,000 Floridians are employed by foreign companies or their affiliates. There are opportunities to capture more job-creating Foreign Direct investment in Florida, as Florida Chamber Chief Economist Jerry Parrish explains in the latest edition of By The Numbers.
Cissy Proctor Talks to Members of the Florida Chamber’s Small Business Council
The Florida Chamber’s Small Business Council held its monthly conference call on April 24. Thank you to those of you who were able join us on the call. We appreciated the opportunity to keep small business leaders like you informed on issues impacting Florida’s small business community. During the call Cissy Proctor, Executive Director of the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, provided an update on Florida’s job growth for January, February and March. Director Proctor also shared that Florida’s job growth outpaced the nation six times over.
Dr. Jerry Parrish, Chief Economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation, provided an overview of the Florida Chamber’s Q2 Small Business Index Survey results, which shows Florida job creators increasingly concerned about workforce quality and government regulations. Dr. Parrish also shared that fewer small businesses have confidence that Florida’s business climate is headed in the right direction.
We also heard from Frank Walker, Vice President of Governmental Affairs, who shared that there is still a lot of uncertainty as it relates to the 2017 Legislative Session, especially in regards to the passage of next fiscal year’s budget. Mr. Walker provided an update on key legislation including prejudgement interest, workers’ comp reform and Assignment of benefits (AOB), as well as the passage of the Florida Chamber-Backed Ridesharing Legislation which embraces innovation, strengthens job growth and provides ridesharing opportunities for Floridians and the 112+ million annual visitors to Florida.
Mark Your Calendar: Next Conference Call is May 22, 2017
Small businesses are important to Florida’s growing economy. Please mark your calendars for our next conference call on May 22 at 1:30 p.m. Do not miss this opportunity to join the discussion and make your voice heard. For more information on the Florida Chamber’s Small Business Council or becoming a member of the Florida Chamber, please contact Carolyn Johnson at (850) 521-1235.
Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Presents April By the Numbers
Small Businesses Issues, Job Creation and More
During the Florida Chamber Foundation’s recent By The Numbers, the Florida Chamber Foundation takes a closer look at job numbers found on TheFloridaScorecard.org.
Florida has created 246,100 non-farm jobs over the last 12 months and our state’s unemployment rate has dropped to 4.8 percent. Yet there are still 483,000 Floridians who are unemployed, out of a labor force of more than 10.1 million, and there are currently 242,600 jobs looking for people. For the first time in recent history, we have created more construction jobs (up by 7.9 percent), than leisure and hospitality. The Florida Chambers Foundation’s Chief Economist also discusses the results of the Florida Chamber’s Small Business Index Survey. Watch the video to get an inside look on small business issues, job creation and more.
‘It’s getting harder … to create jobs’ in Florida
Authored by: Debora Lima, South Florida Business Journal
Jobs aren’t cropping up in Florida quite like they used to, and with public-private partnerships on the chopping block, the tide is unlikely to turn any time soon.
That was the message economist Jerry Parrish had for the 1,000 attendees of the Broward Workshop’s “State of the County” forum on Friday.
“It’s getting harder and harder to create jobs in this state,” he said, joking that he must have missed the memo to “keep it upbeat.” “You don’t have to kill Visit Florida. You don’t have to kill Enterprise Florida. Just talking about killing those things is killing jobs.”
Eliminating the partnerships would harm tourism, one of the tri-county region’s most dominant industries, said Parrish, chief economist and director of research for the Florida Chamber Foundation, a business advocacy group.
Florida Companies Exported $52.0 Billion in Florida Origin Exports in 2016?
Did you know, data from TheFloridaScorecard.org shows Florida companies exported $52.0 billion in Florida origin exports in 2016? International trade provides Florida companies an opportunity to ship Florida-origin products around the world and allows our state to compete on a global stage. Dr. Jerry Parrish will present a Florida Scorecard Report on International Trade in Florida and unveil new metrics on TheFloridaScorecard.org this week during the Florida Chamber’s annual International Days event.
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About the Florida Scorecard:
The Florida Scorecard, located at www.TheFloridaScorecard.org, presents metrics across Florida’s economy. Each month, the Florida Chamber Foundation produces a Scorecard Stat that takes an in-depth look at one aspect of Florida’s economy. If you would like additional information on the Weekly Scorecard Stat or on the Florida Scorecard, please contact Dr. Jerry Parrish with the Florida Chamber Foundation at firstname.lastname@example.org.
2016 Future of Florida Forum: Release of Small Business Index Survey Results, Dr. Jerry Parrish
Government Regulations and Economic Uncertainty Continue to Concern Small Businesses
Federal Overtime Rules Cause for Concern in Florida’s Small Business Community
Outlook Uncertain as Businesses Face Unstable Economy
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (June 23, 2016) – The most recent Florida Chamber Foundation Small Business Index Survey shows 22 percent of Florida’s small businesses say government regulations are their top concern, up from 10 percent last quarter. Florida small businesses are particularly concerned with recent changes to Federal overtime regulations.
Economic uncertainty was reported as the second highest concern, with 20 percent of respondents listing it as their top obstacle in hiring new employees. The results also indicate that 27 percent of respondents expect the economy to weaken over the next year, up from 13 percent last quarter. Only 38 percent of respondents reported that their business was better off than six months ago, compared to 46 percent last quarter.
“The overall outlook is less positive than it was in the last quarter, with government regulations appearing as the top issue,” said Dr. Jerry Parrish, Chief Economist and Director of Research, Florida Chamber Foundation. “Florida’s small businesses are still concerned about the economy and workforce quality, but the good news is that many small businesses are still planning to hire new employees and plan to make capital investments in the coming year.”
The Florida Chamber’s Small Business Index Survey shows:
- Top Issues Facing Small Businesses:
Government regulations (22 percent)
- Economic Uncertainty (20 percent),
- Workforce Quality (18 percent),
- Taxes (8 percent),
- Access to Capital (7 percent),
- Growth Management Process (7 percent),
- 18 percent listing some other issue as their top concern.
47 percent of respondents indicated that sales were up over the past three months, down from 53 percent in last quarter’s survey.
- 35 percent of respondents employ less than five employees,
- 43 percent of respondents employ 5 to 49 employees,
- 10 percent employ 50-99 employees and
- 12 percent of respondents employ from 100-499 employees.
“Small businesses continue to face a number of challenges, including increased government regulations,” said Debra Harvey, Chair, Florida Chamber of Commerce Small Business Council and President, Ron Jon Surf Shop. “As we work together on the Florida Chamber Small Business Council, we look forward to identifying solutions that support our business community and grow this important economic engine.”
The Florida Chamber’s Small Business Index Survey was conducted electronically June 1, 2016 through June 17, 2016. Click here to view the full report.
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