New Florida Chamber of Commerce Statewide Poll Shows Presidential Race Too Close to Call in Florida

 

Rubio/Murphy Locked in a Tight Race; Amendments Would Pass if Election Were Today

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (September 26, 2016) – As Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump make final preparations for their first presidential debate tonight, the latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) statewide poll shows the presidential race too close to call. Florida remains a tossup state between Clinton and Trump.

“Floridians don’t like either candidate at the top of the ticket, therefore it’s important that both candidates work to connect with voters tonight when they will have the nation’s attention during the presidential debate,” said MARIAN JOHNSON, Senior Vice President of Political Operations. “Presidential debates offer candidates an opportunity to make solid gains and to improve their outcome at the ballot box. I believe Floridians will be watching the candidates closely to learn more about them, and to help determine which way they will vote.”

In addition to their dislike of Clinton and Trump, Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy are locked in a tight race, while political parties and billboard trial lawyers continue to be disliked by voters.

 

Politicians, Parties, and Plaintiff Trial Lawyers are Mostly Disliked:

poling_092616

 

Key Facts About Florida Voters:

  • Jobs and the economy remain the number one concern among Florida voters at 19 percent, followed by education and schools at 12 percent.
  • Florida voters are more optimistic that Florida is moving in the right direction – 44 percent right direction and 36 percent wrong direction.

 

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Presidential Election:
While Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 45 percent to 42 percent in the head-to-head General Election matchup, the Florida Chamber Political Institute statewide poll shows Clinton’s lead shrinks when third party candidates are added to the mix. Clinton leads Trump 43 percent to 41 percent with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 8 percent of the vote.

 

Presidential Ticket:

  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 43%
  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence 41%
  • Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 8%
  • Someone Else 2%
  • Undecided 5%
  • Refused 1%

 

South Florida Problem:

  • Trump continues to struggle in South Florida, trailing nearly 20 points in each media market.
    • In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump 56 percent to 25 percent in Miami, while in a three-way race including Gary Johnson, Clinton leads 56 percent to 31 percent for Trump and 3 percent for Gary Johnson.
    • In a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Trump 53 percent to 32 percent in West Palm Beach, while in a three-way race including Gary Johnson, Clinton leads 52 percent to 34 percent for Trump and 5 percent for Johnson.

 

Demographics:

  • Hillary Clinton is helped with her commanding lead among Hispanic voters.
    • In a head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 53 percent to 30 percent.
    • In a three-way race including Gary Johnson the Libertarian, Clinton leads among Hispanic voters 49 percent to 30 percent for Trump and 12 percent for Johnson.
  • Hilary Clinton has an impressive lead among African American voters.
    • In a head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads among African American voters 89 percent to 4 percent.
    • In a three-way race including Gary Johnson the Libertarian, Clinton leads among African American voters 88 percent to 4 percent for Trump and 1 percent for Johnson.
  • Donald Trump has a strong lead among White voters and it does not move much when adding a third party
    • In a head-to-head race with Clinton, Trump leads among White voters 51 percent to 35 percent.
    • In a three-way race including Gary Johnson the Libertarian, Trump leads among White voters 51 percent to 34 percent for Clinton and 8 percent for Johnson.
  • A gender gap still exists – Trump leads among men and Clinton is dominating among women
    • In a head-to-head race with Clinton, Trump leads among men 47 percent to 42 percent, and in a three-way race he leads with men 45 percent to 41 percent to 9 percent for Gary Johnson.
    • In a head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads among women 47 percent to 37 percent, and in a three-way race, Clinton leads with women 46 percent to 38 percent to 7 percent for Johnson.
  • Clinton and Trump each do equally well with their bases
    • Clinton earns the support of 78 percent of Democrats in a head-to-head with Trump and 76 percent of Democrats in a three-way contest with Gary Johnson.
    • Trump earns the support of 76 percent of Republicans in a head-to-head with Clinton and 76 percent of the vote in a three-way contest with Gary Johnson.
  • Clinton leads Trump among voters from minor parties or who are unaffiliated
    • In a head-to-head race with Trump, Clinton leads among other parties 47 percent to 38 percent.
    • Clinton increases her lead slightly among other parties 45 percent to 35 percent over Trump, with Gary Johnson receiving 9 percent among voters from minor parties or who have no party affiliation.

 

U.S. Senate:
Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy are locked in a race that will be tight until Election Day.

  • Marco Rubio 46%
  • Patrick Murphy 42%
  • Undecided 11%
  • Refused 1%

 

Demographics:

  • Marco Rubio continues to lead Patrick Murphy as he has in every FCPI poll – a credit to his strength among demographic groups.
    • Rubio leads Murphy 46 percent to 43 percent among Hispanic voters
    • Murphy leads Rubio 79 percent to 11 percent among African American voters
    • Rubio leads Murphy 53 percent to 35 percent among White voters
    • Rubio leads Murphy with men and barely trails him among women
      • Rubio leads Murphy 49 percent to 41 percent among men.
      • Murphy only leads Rubio by 2 points among women, 44 percent to 42 percent.
    • Rubio’s lead among votes from other parties mirrors his lead in the general election (4 percent). Rubio leads Murphy 42 percent to 38 percent among voters from minor parties or who have no party affiliation.

 

Amendment 1:

If the election were held today, it appears more than 65 percent of voters would support the passage of Amendment 1 which protects the rights of electricity consumers regarding solar energy choice.

  • Yes 66%
  • No 16%

 

“The Florida Chamber supports the solar energy policies in Amendment 1 and it appears Florida voters do too,” said MARK WILSON, President and CEO of the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

 

Amendment 2:

If the election were held today, it appears more than 70 percent of voters would support the passage of Amendment 2 which permits the use of marijuana for debilitating medical conditions.

  • Yes 73%
  • No 22%

 

Amendment 3:

If the election were held today, it appears more than 85 percent of voters would support the passage of Amendment 3 which provides a tax exemption for totally and permanently disabled first responders.

  • Yes 85%
  • No 7%

 

Amendment 5:

If the election were held today, it appears 80 percent of voters would support the passage of Amendment 5 which provides a homestead tax exemption for certain senior low income, long term residents.

  • Yes 80%
  • No 9%

 

 

ABOUT THIS POLL:
The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on September 15-20, 2016 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-4 percent. The sample size included 263 Democrats, 250 Republicans and 104 Others for a total of 617 respondents statewide. The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber are consistently drawn from likely voters and newly registered voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters.  Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.

 

 

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Politicians, Parties and Plaintiff Trial Lawyers are Unknown or Unliked in New Florida Chamber of Commerce Statewide Poll

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (August 24, 2016) – The latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) statewide poll shows Floridians either don’t know or don’t like politicians that will appear on their ballot, the parties they represent and the plaintiff trial lawyers that financially back many candidates.

With 12.3 million registered Florida voters, hundreds of thousands of which are newly registered since the last presidential election, and 40 new state senate districts that Florida voters will vote in for the first time, this remains one of the most unprecedented elections.

“A week sounds like a short time, but it can be a lifetime for a campaign and provide candidates the opportunity to make solid gains that can improve their outcome. It’s unusual to see this many undecided voters this close to the election, but for candidates, its good news. They still have time to move the voters,” said MARIAN JOHNSON, Senior Vice President of Government and Political Relations.

Politicians, Parties, and Plaintiff Trial Lawyers are Unknown or Unliked

Poll_082416

Key Facts About Florida Voters:

  • Jobs and the economy remain the number one concern among Florida voters at 21 percent, followed by education and schools at 13 percent.
  • 39 percent of Florida voters believe their families’ current financial situation is better today than a year ago, with 37 percent saying about the same.
  • Florida voters are virtually evenly split on how they feel on whether Florida is moving in the right direction – 40 percent right direction and 41 percent wrong direction.

 

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Presidential Election:
Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton 44 percent to 43 percent in the head-to-head General Election matchup. The Florida Chamber Political Institute poll shows Trump leads even more when third party candidates are added to the mix. Trump leads Clinton’s 44 percent to 41 percent with Libertarian Gary Johnson pulling 9 percent of the vote.

  • Donald Trump 44%
  • Hillary Clinton 43%
  • Someone Else 7%
  • Undecided 5%

Presidential Ticket:

  • Donald Trump/Mike Pence 44%
  • Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 41%
  • Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 9%
  • Someone Else 2%
  • Undecided 4%

U.S. Senate:
Marco Rubio and Patrick Murphy are each headed to comfortable wins to secure their party nominations.

  • Republican Ticket:
    Marco Rubio beats Carlos Beruff 68% to 19% with 10% undecided.
  • Democratic Ticket:
    Patrick Murphy beats Alan Grayson 40% to 11% with 38% undecided.

According to Florida Chamber of Commerce Senior Director of Campaign and Elections Andrew Wiggins, despite Trump’s small lead statewide, his current unfavorable rating may pose problems in certain state and local races.

“The data clearly shows that Donald Trump’s name recognition may impact republican candidates down ballot – particularly in large metropolitan South Florida areas. And, digging deep into the numbers, Trump continues to trail Hillary Clinton in South Florida, trailing by 19 points in Miami-Dade and by 15 points in West Palm Beach,” ANDREW WIGGINS explained.

Amendment 4:

If the election were held today, it appears almost 70 percent of voters would support the passage of Amendment 4 on the August 30 primary ballot and which unlocks the value of solar for Florida businesses and communities by removing the ad valorem taxes that solar installations carry on commercial properties under current law.

  • Yes 70%
  • No 14%

“Amendment 4 on the August 30 primary ballot will bring more solar jobs to Florida and help diversify our energy grid,” said SENATOR JEFF BRANDES (R – St. Petersburg, FL). “This poll shows a broad bipartisan support for solar in Florida, and everyone regardless of party affiliation should vote YES on or by August 30.”

Daily absentee and early voting (EAV) data shows that 1,153,497 Florida voters have already voted for the August 30th primary election. EAV is a major part of today’s elections, and the Florida Chamber is providing daily EAV reports broken down by county and legislative district. Click here to access the report – updated each day before 4 p.m.

 

ABOUT THIS POLL:
The Florida Chamber of Commerce political poll was conducted on August 17-22, 2016 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters, and has a margin of error of +/-4 percent. The sample size included 258 Democrats, 249 Republicans and 101 Others for a total of 608 respondents statewide. The samples for the polls conducted by the Florida Chamber are consistently drawn from likely voters and newly registered voters, meaning those voters who have the propensity and past performance of voting in elections, rather than simply including registered voters.  Voters are again screened for likelihood of voting.

 

Likely Florida Voters Have Negative Feelings Towards Current Presidential Party Front Runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Edie Ousley, 850-521-1231 or 850-251-6261
eousley@flchamber.com

Florida Voters Approve of the Job Governor Rick Scott is
Doing and Believe Florida is Headed in the Right Direction

ORLANDO (September 29 , 2015) – The latest Florida Chamber Political Institute (FCPI) poll released today shows Floridians view the two candidates leading in the polls for the Republican and Democratic nominations for President –Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump –more negative than positive.

  • Hillary Clinton: Of likely Florida voters, the Florida Chamber poll shows only 37 percent have a favorable opinion, while 57 percent have an unfavorable opinion of her.
  • Donald Trump: Likely Florida voters have a 35 percent favorable opinion, with 53 percent having an unfavorable opinion of him.
  • Jeb Bush: Likely Florida voters have a 48 percent favorable opinion of him compared to 39 percent having an unfavorable opinion.

“In 1980 when I was serving as a director on Ronald Reagan’s Florida presidential team, and the race was between Reagan, George Bush, John Connally and others, Reagan wasn’t the front runner, yet he ultimately was elected president,” said Marian Johnson, Senior Vice President for Political Strategies for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

“We’re more than five months away from the primary, and the front runner today very well may not be the front runner in March, 2016,” said Andrew Wiggins, Senior Director of Campaigns and Elections for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

 

Head-to-Head Matchups:

Although the primaries are more than five months away, and it’s impossible to predict, below are some potential scenarios:

  • Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump 42 to 41 percent, but Jeb Bush beats Hillary Clinton 48 to 37 percent.
  • In a scenario where Jeb Bush is the Republican candidate, Hillary Clinton is the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump is an Independent, Hillary Clinton leads Jeb Bush 35 percent to 32 percent, with Donald Trump receiving 21 percent of the vote.

If The Race Were Held Today:

In the Presidential Republican primary, Donald Trump leads with 25 percent, while Carly Fiorina, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio are all within the margin of error of each other.

  • Donald Trump – 25 percent
  • Marco Rubio – 14 percent
  • Jeb Bush – 13 percent
  • Carly Fiorina – 11 percent
  • Ben Carson – 9 percent
  • Ted Cruz – 6 percent

Right/Wrong Direction:

Additionally, the recent statewide Florida Chamber political poll shows almost half of Floridians believe Florida is heading in the right direction, and nearly half approving of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor.

  • 44 percent of Floridians believe Florida is heading in the right direction, compared to 37 percent that think we’re heading in the wrong direction, and
  • 48 percent of Floridians approve of the job Rick Scott is doing as Governor, while 39 disapprove.

 

Top Issues Among Likely Voters:

Also, likely Florida voters believe the economy is the most important issue facing Florida. Specifically:

  • 24 percent of likely voters say job creation and the improving the economy is the most important issue facing Florida
  • 13 percent of Florida voters believe education should is the most important issue in the state,
  • 9 percent of registered voters believe healthcare is the most important issue, and
  • 6 percent of Florida voters believe immigration is the most important issue our state is facing.

Constitutional Amendments:

Voters will vote on several Constitutional Amendments that are expected to be on the ballot.

Solar Amendments:

With the two competing solar amendments, one appears to be winning while the other is losing.

  • Limits or Prevents Barriers: 41 percent support while 35 percent oppose.
  • Rights of Electricity Consumers Regarding Solar Energy Choice: 76 percent support while 7 percent oppose.

Medical Marijuana:

After losing in 2014, the medical marijuana amendment continues gaining support, with 67 percent supporting and 27 percent opposing.

 

ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber political poll was conducted September 16-20, 2015, and the margin of error is +/- 4 with a 95 percent confidence level. Below are crosstabs.

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The Florida Chamber of Commerce is the voice of business and the state’s largest federation of employers, chambers of commerce and associations, aggressively representing small and large businesses from every industry and every region. The Florida Chamber works within all branches of government to affect those changes set forth in the annual Florida Business Agenda, and which are seen as critical to secure Florida’s future. The Florida Chamber works closely with its Political Operations and the Florida Chamber Foundation. Visit www.FloridaChamber.com for more information.