Florida Chamber Chief Economist Dr. Jerry Parrish Details The Coronavirus’ Threats on Florida’s Economy
“With companies cutting their GDP forecasts, 30-year mortgages at an eight-year low, and manufacturers idling their factories because of supply-chain issues, all of this is having an effect on Florida’s economy.”
– Dr. Jerry Parrish
TALLAHASSEE, Fla (February 25, 2020) – Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Dr. Jerry Parrish says Florida should be “concerned, but not panicked” about the coronavirus’s threats on Florida’s economy.
“Yesterday the Dow dropped by more than 1,000 points, companies are cutting their GDP forecasts, 30-year mortgages are at an eight-year low, manufacturers are idling their factories because of supply chain issues. All of this is having an effect on Florida’s economy, and it could continue. This is certainly a concern, but it’s not anything to panic about,” Dr. Parrish explained in his latest Florida By The Numbers report.
According to Dr. Parrish, Florida’s most vulnerable industries include:
• International Visitors
• Cruise Passengers
• Manufacturing Jobs
The 10-year government bond, and the three-month T-bill are now showing an inversion.
“An inversion of the yield curve has been a reliable, but not perfect signal, of a future recession. This is one of the metrics that goes into the calculation of the probability of a Florida recession which is on TheFloridaScorecard.org,” Dr. Parrish explained. “The probability of Florida being in a recession over the next nine months has now increased to 24.1 percent.”
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Probability of a Florida Recession Continues to Drop and New County Data Available
According to Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Dr. Jerry Parrish, Florida’s probability of a recession declined for the second month in a row. This news along with new county data added to TheFloridaScorecard.org are topics discussed in the latest By the Numbers.
Access to high-speed communications is vital in today’s technical economy. The Florida 2030 Blueprint includes an infrastructure goal that by 2030, 100 percent of Florida residents will have access to high-speed communications. To learn the percentage of residents in your county with access to high-speed internet, visit www.TheFloridaScorecard.org.
Registration Closing Soon
Registration is closing soon for the 2019 Transportation, Growth & Infrastructure Summit on December 5th in Hollywood. Click here for an updated list of speakers and register today to hear from the Florida Chamber Infrastructure Coalition, Trade Committees, Department of Transportation Secretary, Legislators and many others on how Florida will need to adapt and plan for Florida’s future.
Florida Job Numbers: Is Your County On Par With the Rest of Florida?
In the most recent Florida Chamber Foundation’s By The Numbers, the Florida Chamber Foundation takes a closer look at Florida’s current job numbers found on TheFloridaScorecard.org and the impact of Hurricane Irma on the state’s insurance industry.
Overall, job creation year-over-year remains higher than the U.S., with a 2.6 percent increase for Florida vs. 1.4 percent increase for the nation (see attached for county-by-county).
By The Numbers: Foreign Direct Investment
Florida needs to create 2 million net new jobs between now and 2030, but will our state be prepared for the future – even as job creation slows down?
Currently, more than 266,000 Floridians are employed by foreign companies or their affiliates. There are opportunities to capture more job-creating Foreign Direct investment in Florida, as Florida Chamber Chief Economist Jerry Parrish explains in the latest edition of By The Numbers.
By the Numbers: March 2017
Florida Chamber Foundation Chief Economist Presents April By the Numbers
Small Businesses Issues, Job Creation and More
During the Florida Chamber Foundation’s recent By The Numbers, the Florida Chamber Foundation takes a closer look at job numbers found on TheFloridaScorecard.org.
Florida has created 246,100 non-farm jobs over the last 12 months and our state’s unemployment rate has dropped to 4.8 percent. Yet there are still 483,000 Floridians who are unemployed, out of a labor force of more than 10.1 million, and there are currently 242,600 jobs looking for people. For the first time in recent history, we have created more construction jobs (up by 7.9 percent), than leisure and hospitality. The Florida Chambers Foundation’s Chief Economist also discusses the results of the Florida Chamber’s Small Business Index Survey. Watch the video to get an inside look on small business issues, job creation and more.
Brexit and What it Means for Florida
Watch Dr. Parrish’s full analysis from earlier this week on the potential impact of Brexit.
Yesterday, citizens of the U.K. voted in a referendum to leave the European Union (EU). The historic vote has now made the British exit from the EU (dubbed “Brexit”) a reality. So, what does this mean for Florida?
This past Monday, Dr. Jerry Parrish, Chief Economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation, taped a segment on the Florida Chamber’s monthly Florida by the Numbers about the vote and the potential effects on the Florida economy if the U.K. voted to leave. In that video, he noted that it would have effects on both Florida’s international trade and international visitors.
Overall, there were more than 2.4 million visitors from the rest of Europe – and expected decreases in the value of the Euro will increase their travel costs for trips to Florida. With the expected decrease in the value of the British Pound, travel to Florida will also become more expensive for U.K. residents.
“In 2015, more than 1.7 million U.K. visitors came to Florida- that’s about 40 percent of European vistors and about 15 percent of all of Florida’s overseas visitors. In fact, visitors from the U.K. make up the largest non-Canadian visitor group Florida has,” said Dr. Jerry Parrish, Chief Economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation. “International visitors spend more and stay longer, and leave more sales and other tax dollars in our state. With more than $89 billion spent by visitors in 2015 in taxable sales, this is a substantial contributor to Florida’s general revenue.”
The vote by the U.K. to leave the European Union will also have the immediate effect of increasing volatility in financial markets, and will likely lead to reduced foreign direct investment in Florida. We know from history that increases in uncertainty and volatility typically have a negative effect on investment and trade.
The silver lining for Florida? Imports from both the U.K. and Europe should now be cheaper. Currently, Florida imports twice as much as it exports from the U.K.
Florida’s imports from Europe made up 23 percent of the total imports – totaling $16.9 billion in 2015. Those imports should become less expensive as the Euro falls in value versus the U.S. dollar.
As we monitor the situation, we will keep you updated with the most recent information. In the meantime, we want to hear from you. Does your business currently work with U.K. imports or exports? How will this impact you?