New Florida Chamber Statewide Poll Shows Donald Trump and Rick Scott Begin 2024 Campaigns With Leads, While Governor Ron DeSantis Remains Popular With Floridians
Poll Also Shows Recreational Marijuana Amendment Continues to Fall Short of 60% Requirement for Passage
The latest Florida Chamber statewide poll finds both Donald Trump and Rick Scott leading their likely Democratic opponents. Trump and Scott each lead their respective opponents among Hispanics, White voters and older voters.
The Florida Chamber’s poll also finds Governor DeSantis retaining strong approval amongst Floridians, with 56% of Floridians giving the Governor a favorable review of his job performance as Florida’s chief executive.
Trump, Scott Lead Democratic Opponents in Florida
The Florida Chamber’s poll shows that if the election for President of the United States were held today in Florida former President Donald Trump would lead President Joe Biden by a nine-point margin, 51-42%. Trump’s lead over Biden comes in part from holding greater support within his own party compared to Biden, with 89% of Republicans supporting Donald Trump compared to just 79% of Democrats indicating they would vote for Joe Biden. Trump also holds a sizable lead among Hispanic voters in Florida, with 58% of this key demographic compared to 31% of Hispanics who would vote for President Biden.
The potential inclusion of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr does not appear to impact Trump’s lead in Florida. While Kennedy would currently win 10% of the vote in Florida according to the Florida Chamber’s poll, this support comes evenly from both main party candidates as Donald Trump retains a nine-point advantage over Joe Biden in a three-way ballot 46-37%.
In the race for US Senate in Florida, the Florida Chamber’s poll finds incumbent Senator Rick Scott starting with a double-digit lead over his likely Democratic opponent former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Scott earns the support of 54% of Floridians polled for his re-election bid, compared to 39% support for Mucarsel-Powell. Similar to the presidential election, Scott’s lead is built by maintaining strong support from his party and from Hispanic voters. 93 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of Hispanics support Scott head-to-head vs Mucarsel-Powell.
Former President Donald Trump Remains More Popular Than President Joe Biden Among Floridians, Particularly with Hispanic Voters in Florida
The Florida Chamber’s poll shows more than half (53%) of Florida voters hold a favorable view of the job Donald Trump did as President, while more than 6 out of 10 (63%) Floridians disapprove of Joe Biden’s current performance as President. More than three-fourths (76%) of Florida Hispanics disapprove of President Biden’s current administration, while almost 6 out of 10 (59%) view the job Donald Trump did while President favorably.
Compounding President Biden’s unpopularity, more than 6 out of 10 (63%) of Florida voters have an unfavorable view of President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israeli – Palestinian conflict. Even more (84%) of Republicans have an unfavorable view of President Biden’s handling of the Israeli – Palestinian conflict, as well as 58% of NPAs and 77% of Hispanics.
Recreational Marijuana Legalization Continues to Be Short of the 60% Requirement
The Florida Chamber’s poll also found fewer than 6 out of 10 (58%) of Florida voters support legalizing recreational marijuana, the third consecutive poll from the Florida Chamber indicating this amendment remains short of the 60% threshold required for passage. Looking at all six proposed amendments to Florida’s Constitution on the November 2024 ballot, the Florida Chamber finds most of these amendments currently fail to reach the 60% mark required for passage.
| # | Amendment Title | Support | Oppose | Undecided/
Refused |
| 1 | Partisan Election of Members of School Boards | 29% | 41% | 30% |
| 2 | Right to Fish and Hunt | 74% | 14% | 11% |
| 3 | Adult Personal Use of Marijuana | 58% | 37% | 5% |
| 4 | Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion | 61% | 29% | 10% |
| 5 | Annual Adjustments to the Value of Certain Homestead Exemptions | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| 6 | Repeal of Public Campaign Finance Requirement | 34% | 45% | 22% |
“With 144 amendments since its creation in 1968, Florida’s constitution has long been a target of special interest groups with agendas and recreational marijuana is no different,” said Florida Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Mark Wilson. “The Florida Chamber continues to lead the fight it has fought for over 20 years against similar proposed amendments that could be addressed legislatively rather than through altering Florida’s foundational document.”
Florida Likely Voters Believe:
Top Issues Facing Florida
- Illegal Immigration – 16%
- Property Insurance – 14%
- Job Creation & the Economy – 10%
- Education – 8%
- Abortion Issues – 7%
Top Issues by Demographic
- Female Voters Top Issue is Illegal Immigration
- Male Voters Top Issue is Property Insurance
- Republicans Top Issue is Illegal Immigration
- Democrats Top Issue is Property Insurance
- NPAs Top Issue is Property Insurance
- Hispanics Top Issue is Job Creation/Economy as well as Property Insurance
Republicans Continue to Dominate Voter Registration in Florida
Republicans continued to expand their registration lead over Democrats. The Republican voter registration lead across Florida now stands at almost 1 million voters even though Democrats held an outright voter registration advantage as recently as October 2021.
“As Florida adds more than 750 net new residents every day, our economics, our demographics and as we see, our politics are all continuing to change,” said Florida Chamber Executive Vice President of Government and Political Relations Frank Walker. “Florida’s political landscape has changed dramatically in just the last couple of years and will continue to do so as we approach the 2024 election.”
As of the most recent Florida update, Republicans hold a statewide advantage of 893,109 voters, a lead of nearly 7% over Democrats amongst all voters, 5,239,600 Republicans to 4,346,491 Democrats, with NPA and other party registrants comprising almost 30% of all active voters at 3,876,911. The Republican registration advantage continues to grow by more than 20,000 voters per month.
Florida Chamber Voter Education and Recruiting Initiatives
With all 120 House seats and half of Florida Senate seats on the 2024 ballot, the Florida Chamber leads the business community’s efforts to recruit and elect better candidates through the Florida Free Enterprise Fund, Florida Chamber Political Institute and the Florida Institute for Political Leadership. For more information about these initiatives, contact the Florida Chamber’s Executive Vice President of Government & Political Relations Frank Walker at fwalker@flchamber.com.
ABOUT THIS POLL: The Florida Chamber of Commerce voter poll was conducted on April 28 – May 7, 2024 by Cherry Communications during live telephone interviews of likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. The sample size included 223 Democrats, 256 Republicans and 130 Others for a total of 609 respondents statewide.