As uncertainty surrounding inflation, tariffs, and GDP fluctuations dominates headlines, consumer sentiment is rising into the limelight. When the economy is unpredictable, it becomes even more important to understand how consumers feel—and Florida stands out.
As some policies are implemented, and others continue to be up in the air, Florida’s consumers are more optimistic than they were a year ago. That optimism is grounded in a strong economy: with a $1.74 trillion GDP, Florida would be the 16th largest economy in the world if it were a country. There are over 10 million jobs in Florida’s labor market – more than the population of 40 states. This strong foundation provides some context for why Floridians are feeling more confident – in fact, the latest data shows a record gap between Florida’s consumer outlook and the national average, suggesting that many feel the economic outlook is brighter here. In a time when perception plays a growing role in shaping reality, Florida’s relatively positive outlook could keep the economy bright in the sunshine state.
Florida has the Potential to Outperform National Economy
In the midst of economic uncertainty, the most recent economic headlines have shown a dip in national GDP. Over the first quarter of 2025, the U.S. economy saw a decline of 0.3%, the first decline in GDP since 2022. This decline, driven primarily by an increase in imports as consumers and businesses “stock up” before tariffs take effect, has fed uncertainty surrounding economic conditions. As we wait to see how Florida’s GDP fared in the first quarter (data available in June), the Florida Chamber Foundation is expecting that Florida’s economy will see a much smaller drop, or even potentially increase. The main reason for this optimism? Floridians themselves are feeling positive.
Florida’s consumer sentiment is much higher than that of national consumers, with this month’s consumer outlook marking the largest gap in the history of the index (Florida’s consumer sentiment is 24.8 points above the U.S.).
GDP is comprised of four components: consumer spending, investment, government spending, and the trade balance (exports – imports). Of the 4 components, consumer spending typically makes up over 65% of the total economy. This means that how consumers feel about the economy—and spend their money based on those feelings—is important.
Consumer Sentiment in Florida vs. the U.S.
Figure 1. Florida and U.S. Consumer Sentiment
To measure how consumers feel about the economy, The University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers and the University of Florida’s BEBR Consumer Sentiment Index both survey consumers about their thoughts on current and future economic conditions. As illustrated in Figure 1, both national and Florida consumer sentiment have been declining in 2025 (reported monthly), as is expected in an unpredictable time, but Floridians’ outlook has not seen as steep a drop off as the national level. Compared to this time last year, Floridians are feeling more positive about the economy (+5.0%), compared to the significantly more pessimistic view for national consumers (-32.4%).
While consumer sentiment is just one way to measure the economic climate, it appears that Floridians feel they are better off in Florida than the rest of the country.
Economic Growth and Labor Market Resiliency Could be Fueling the Relative Optimism in Florida
What could be driving that optimism? Florida’s economy is outperforming the nation in a few areas, like recent economic growth and labor market resiliency.
In 2024, Florida saw stronger GDP growth, with real GDP growing by 3.1% compared to the nation’s 2.5%. In Florida, industries like Construction, Arts and Entertainment and Retail Trade saw the largest increases in GDP – illustrating the diversification in Florida’s economy that has been the trend in recent years.
Further adding to consumer confidence, Florida’s labor market has had annual job growth higher than the nation (with the exception of October 2024, when hurricanes caused temporary irregularities in data collection; Figure 2). Consistent job growth, coupled with lower unemployment rates than the nation, prove resiliency in Florida’s labor market.
Figure 2. Year-Over-Year Job Growth Rate in Florida vs. U.S.
Consumer sentiment is measured by a few components related to either current or future economic situations, such as feelings about the consumer’s personal financial situation now compared to a year ago, and expected national economic conditions over the next year, among other topics. The recent growth in Florida’s economy has shown to be the largest driver in Floridians’ consumer sentiment, as the opinions of personal financial situations compared to a year ago are improving. While Florida’s views of future economic conditions did decline, as is expected in the face of a shifting economy, the drop was not as drastic as the national views.
Florida’s Metro Areas Rank High Among the Nation for Consumer Sentiment
Consumer sentiment is also available for many metro areas in the country, through the new Metropolitan Consumer Sentiment Index measured quarterly by American City Business Journals and Morning Consult. Zooming into metro areas in Florida provides an even sunnier picture. The four Florida metro areas included in the index (Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Tampa-St. Petersburg) all ranked within the Top 15 most positive outlooks. Of these four, three saw improvement in their consumer outlook over the past year. Tampa and Jacksonville metro areas were among the top metro area confidence gains. Miami, although seeing a very slight drop in consumer outlook, boasted the 4th highest metro area outlook in the first quarter of 2025.
Looking Ahead:
While Florida does share in the national sense of uncertainty, the latest consumer sentiment figures are a hopeful indicator of Florida’s resiliency amidst potential for a national downturn. As consumer outlook and subsequent behavior play an increasing role in the economy, Floridians feeling better off means Florida’s economy is better positioned as well.
To stay up to date as new data is released on Florida’s consumer sentiment, growing GDP, labor market statistics, and more, visit TheFloridaScorecard.org and subscribe to our Florida Chamber Foundation’s Florida By the Numbers economic updates for an in-depth analysis on how these figures impact the way we live and do business in Florida.