The Florida Chamber Foundation unveiled its 2023 economic and demographic predictions during its 2023 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit today. During today’s state of Florida business and forecasting event, the Florida Chamber Foundation team, leading economists, and industry experts shared a glimpse into the opportunities and challenges Florida’s economy is facing on the road to 2030, in addition to an exclusive 2023 Florida economic forecast, a national economic outlook, and valuable insight into Florida’s evolving workforce needs, population growth, housing trends, and more.
“We’re excited in Florida because 2023 will be another year of population growth, wealth migration, more jobs and economic growth, and we are fighting to keep Florida, Florida,” said Florida Chamber of Commerce and Foundation President Mark Wilson. “Governor DeSantis continues to put Florida’s brand of being a free state on the national radar and it’s making an impact. Uniting Florida job creators around our Florida 2030 Blueprint is essential as we welcome this growth and continue to move Florida forward in the right direction.”
Florida Chamber Foundation 2023 Economic Predictions Include:
- 2023 will be another year of strong job growth: Florida businesses have created 699,800 jobs since Governor Ron DeSantis took office. We were one of the first four states to fully recover jobs to pre-Covid levels and now have 487,400 more jobs than we did pre-pandemic. Despite the threat of a national recession, we believe Florida will create more than 250,000 jobs in 2023, continuing Florida’s leadership as one of the nation’s top job creators.
- Population growth will remain strong: Following a year where Florida added more than 416,000 residents, the Florida Chamber Foundation predicts population growth will remain strong at approximately 350,000 new residents as interest rates rise, recession fears strengthen, and shallow consumer confidence nationally dampens domestic migration. Florida currently adds approximately 1,000 net new residents per day, approximately half of whom come from another state and half of whom come from another country. One concern on the horizon is Florida still has more deaths than births, and we’re keeping a close eye on this.
- Workforce availability and participation rate will continue to remain a concern: The unemployment rate for Florida will continue to be below the national average of 3.5%— Florida is currently 2.7%. We believe this trend will continue in 2023. There will continue to be more jobs looking for people than people looking for jobs. In fact, currently for every 100 open jobs in Florida, there are only 62 people looking to fill them.
- Stronger GDP growth for Florida’s economy: Florida’s economy is much better situated to handle the ups and downs of the national economy than most states. While the US economy did go into a recession, Florida’s GDP continued to grow. Now that the national economy has come out of a recession, we expect strong GDP growth for Florida in 2023.
- Inflation will be a significant concern for consumers and businesses: Although inflation will continue to decrease with the cost of energy coming down due to lower US demand as well as an increase of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Inflation has been 7.1% over the last 12 months, and it will continue to limit consumer spending. Florida will have continued economic growth, but it will not be as robust as it should be if inflation was maintained around 2% as it had been during the decade from 2010 to 2020 period.
- Transactions of single-family homes will return to pre-pandemic levels, but without much erosion in prices: The Florida Chamber Foundation predicts roughly 280,000-290,000 sales (similar to pre-pandemic levels) in Florida, and that Florida will end 2023 with a median sales price of $380,000, roughly 5% lower than 2022. In terms of new inventory, the Florida Chamber Foundation predicts 2023 will see approximately 80,000 to 85,000 single family housing starts.
- Florida will continue to lead income migration: The latest available IRS data shows 23.7 billion dollars in net annual income migration and the Florida Chamber Foundation expects that figure to continue expanding as people from other states come to Florida for economic opportunity, less burdensome regulations, excellent educational opportunities, no state income tax, and a better quality of life.
If you missed our economic forecasting event, there is still an opportunity to view the Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2023 Florida Economic Outlook & Jobs Solution Summit. Digital passes are available for you and your management team at flchm.co/EcoOutlook23.
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About The Florida Chamber Foundation
The Florida Chamber Foundation is the business-led, solutions development and research organization working in partnership with state business leaders to make Florida even more competitive and secure Florida’s future. The Foundation’s “Six Pillars” serve as a visioning platform for developing the first-ever, long-term strategic plan for the state. The Foundation’s work focuses on: 1) Talent Supply and Education, 2) Innovation and Economic Development, 3) Infrastructure and Growth Leadership, 4) Business Climate and Competitiveness, 5) Civic and Governance Systems, and 6) Quality of Life and Quality Places. Founded in 1968, the Foundation is a crucial voice for improving the state’s pro-business climate to enable Florida to grow and prosper. Visit www.FLFoundation.org for more information.